We break down every World Cup group’s permutations and use the Opta supercomputer to assess who is most likely to progress.

Group A

Thanks to Mexico‘s perfect start without conceding a goal, they are guaranteed to top Group A.

After staging a late comeback against Czechia on Matchday 1, South Korea currently sit in second place and only need a point against South Africa to maintain their position.

FIFA’s new tiebreaker rules, which prioritise head-to-head record over goal difference, rule out a first-place finish for the Koreans, but they have an 80.4% chance of securing second. They will qualify as runners-up with either a draw or a win against South Africa.

Czechia and South Africa have accumulated one point apiece thus far, and both sides will be looking for a victory to guarantee their progression into the knockout stages.

Czechia will qualify as runners-up if they beat Mexico, South Africa beat South Korea and they outperform South Africa on goal difference.

South Africa will finish second if they beat South Korea and Czechia fail to beat Mexico.

Given all that, the Opta supercomputer gives Czechia a 65.2% chance of finishing in third place, and a 30.2% chance of reaching the last 32 as a best third-placed team.

It still expects Bafana Bafana to finish fourth, though. They do so in 64.6% of simulations.

Group B

First place in Group B remains up for grabs, with Switzerland and Canada meeting in Vancouver to settle it.

Both arrive unbeaten, with a win and a draw each, and Canada’s superior goal difference (+6) means a draw would be enough to keep them top, leaving Switzerland second.

Should either side lose, and a (very unlikely) goal-difference swing occur, qualification would no longer be assured.

The game between Bosnia-Herzegovina and Qatar carries its own weight, with both teams on a single point from two matches. Ultimately, advancing as one of the best third-placed teams is the likeliest outcome for the winners of that game.

Bosnia-Herzegovina, who have been given a 67.6% chance of progression, while the Opta supercomputer gives Qatar a mere 14% chance of making the last 32.

Group C

Bottom place in Group C has already been decided. Haiti have failed to win either of their opening fixtures and cannot escape fourth.

However, the battle at the top of the group is much more interesting, with the other three teams still capable of finishing anywhere from first to third.

Brazil will top the group if they beat Scotland and maintain their goal-difference advantage over Morocco (assuming the latter also win). If Morocco do not beat Haiti, Brazil only need a point against the Scots to finish first.

They will finish second in the group if they draw against Scotland while Morocco beat Haiti. Carlo Ancelotti’s side can still go through in second place with defeat, although that would require Haiti beating Morocco.

For Morocco to top the group, they need to beat Haiti and hope Brazil drop points against Scotland, or hope they beat Haiti by enough of a margin to overhaul the goal difference gap between them and Brazil, should Brazil win.

A draw against Haiti would be enough to finish second, if Scotland failed to beat Brazil.

Oddly, a Scotland win could still see Morocco qualify even if they lost to Haiti. They’d need Scotland to win by a big margin to overhaul the goal difference between the Atlas Lions and Brazil.

The task is harder for Scotland and also a lot simpler. They will qualify for the last 32 if they beat Brazil. They’ll finish top if they win and Morocco fail to beat Haiti, and second if they beat Brazil and Morocco beat Haiti.

Brazil come into MD3 with a goal-difference advantage of two, and this is reflected by the supercomputer, which gives them a 63.7% chance of topping Group C.

Group D

Co-hosts United States have already sealed first place in Group D following an impressive start to the tournament. Given they beat both Australia and Paraguay, neither of them can overtake them at the summit.

United States face Türkiye, whose fate was sealed in a 1-0 loss to Paraguay last time out, in their final group-stage match.

Paraguay-Australia is where all the jeopardy is, then. Australia will qualify as Group D runners-up with at least a point in that game, thanks to their healthier goal difference.

Paraguay have to win to progress automatically. As it stands, the South American side have been given a 38% chance of advancing to the round of 32, compared to Australia’s 62%.

Group E

Following a dominant performance against Curaçao on MD1 and a late magic from Deniz Undav on MD2, Germany are guaranteed to top Group E.

Ecuador’s chances of qualification are hanging by a thread. Having only picked up one point in their first two games, they need to beat Germany on MD3 and hope Curaçao beat the Ivory Coast. The Opta supercomputer gives them a 27.3% chance of progressing.

Ivory Coast put up a good fight against Germany and face Curaçao in their final group game. The supercomputer gives them an 82.7% chance of finishing in second place and a 92.2% chance of qualifying overall. They qualify as runners-up with a win or draw in that contest.

Curaçao need a victory against Côte d’Ivoire to stand any chance at making the last 32, but even then, they need results to swing elsewhere. But they are statistically most likely to finish in fourth place, with the supercomputer placing them bottom of Group E in 71.6% of simulations.

Group F

Everything meaningful remains up for grabs in Group F. Fourth place, though, already belongs to Tunisia.

The North Africans have conceded nine goals in their opening two matches and, even after replacing manager Sabri Lamouchi with Hervé Renard, have only pride left to play for against the Netherlands.

The Dutch can secure top spot with a win, but even a draw will be enough to ensure qualification.

Japan take on Sweden as they bid to go unbeaten in a World Cup group-stage campaign for just the second time, after first doing so as co-hosts in 2002 (W2, D1).

They can qualify as winners if they defeat Sweden and the Netherlands fail to beat Tunisia, or, if both Japan and the Netherlands win, they outscore the Dutch.

A Japan draw and a Netherlands loss will see Japan qualify top, while if they both draw, the group winner could be decided by goals scored.

Sweden can take top spot if they defeat Japan, and the Netherlands fail to beat Tunisia. They’ll qualify as runners-up if they win and the Dutch win.

Group G

Group G is one of the tournament’s tightest, largely because of Belgium‘s underwhelming performances.

The Red Devils face the lowest-ranked team in the competition, New Zealand, in their final group match. Belgium win in 76.2% of the Opta supercomputer’s 25,000 simulations, though even that may not be enough to secure first place, a position they obtain in only 26.6% of simulations.

For them to qualify as winners, they’ll need to beat New Zealand and hope Egypt do not beat Iran.

Egypt will qualify as winners with a win against Iran, or if they draw and Belgium fail to beat New Zealand by three or more goals. A draw will be enough to see them finish second. If they do lose, they’ll need Belgium not to beat New Zealand to still finish second.

If Iran beat Egypt, and Belgium fail to beat New Zealand, they will finish top. If both sides win, Iran will need to win by more goals than Belgium do. A second-place finish would happen if they draw with Egypt, Belgium draw against New Zealand, and Iran finish above Belgium on overall number of goals scored.

For New Zealand, they qualify as runners-up if they beat Belgium and Iran fail to beat Egypt.

Group H

Spain’s progression to the round of 32 is already confirmed, and the Opta supercomputer gives them an 85% likelihood of topping the group.

Beating Uruguay will make absolutely sure, though they can still win the group with a draw as long as Cape Verde don’t thrash Saudi Arabia by 5+ goals.

Cape Verde could potentially usurp Spain on goal difference (remember, their head-to-head is level), though that seems improbable.

A win for Uruguay over Spain will see them progress as group winners as long as Cape Verde don’t pip them on goal difference or goals scored.

If Uruguay only get a draw, they’d need to hope the best Cape Verde can muster against Saudi Arabia is a 0-0 stalemate, otherwise goals scored could come into play.

Should Uruguay lose, they are practically guaranteed to go out.

Cape Verde can win the group with a five-goal win over Saudi Arabia as long as Spain draw with Uruguay.

A less-emphatic victory will still be enough for them to at least go through as one of the best third-place teams, and probably as runners-up.

A draw would even be enough for them if Spain beat Uruguay, while the best Saudi Arabia can achieve is a second-place finish. They’d need to beat Cape Verde and hope Uruguay don’t beat La Roja.

The permutations here are, obviously, quite complicated. The supercomputer can at least help us understand the likelihood of each team progressing, either in first or second, or as one of the best third-place teams.

Spain went through in 100% of the simulations; Uruguay did so in 39.2%; Cape Verde are at 66.9%; and Saudi Arabia went through in 33.3%. 

Group I

Group I is perhaps the most settled group going into the final round of group stage fixtures.

France and Norway won their first two fixtures, and they play each other on MD3. Their requirements to top the group are rather different, however.

Les Bleus just need to avoid defeat to go through as Group I winners; that means Norway must beat France to top the section, though they are already through regardless.

The best Senegal or Iraq can hope for is a third-place finish as both suffered back-to-back defeats. A draw will be of no use for either; whoever wins stands a chance as going through as one of the best third-place finishers, though even that may not be enough.

The Opta supercomputer gives France a 77.8% chance of topping the group and just a 22.2% likelihood of finishing as runners-up. The inverse is true of Norway.

Meanwhile, Senegal have a 91.3% chance of finishing third. That was enough to reach the last 32 in 69.5% of the tournament simulations.

Group J

Argentina have secured top spot in Group J after two excellent performances against Algeria and Austria.

Jordan’s fate has also already been confirmed, having been eliminated from the tournament with zero points to their name.

The battle for second and third is tasty, as Algeria and Austria will go head-to-head in a match to decide each of their fates.

Austria just need to avoid defeat in Kansas City to ensure they go through as runners-up, whereas Algeria have to win to pip Ralf Rangnick’s men to second.

Nevertheless, a defeat doesn’t necessarily mean either team are eliminated, while a draw would probably ensure both go through to the last 32 with four points.

Group K

Following a resounding win against Uzbekistan, Portugal head into their final group game knowing that they must beat Colombia to claim top spot in Group K. A draw or Colombia win would mean the South Americans finish in first place.

Colombia are already guaranteed a spot in the last 32, but Portugal aren’t quite sure of their place. If they lose to Colombia and DR Congo beat Uzbekistan, then it will come down to goal difference. Portugal currently have a six-goal advantage in that regard, though, so it would take a heavy defeat for them and a big win for DR Congo for that deficit to be overturned.

Any win for DR Congo is likely to be enough to qualify even if they still finish third, while a draw is unlikely to be sufficient.

Uzbekistan have to win, and even that might not be enough for them; they are yet to pick up a point and have a terrible goal difference, so they’d be unlikely to finish as one of the best third-placed teams unless they can pick up a big win.

There is a 99.8% chance of Colombia and Portugal two taking up the top two positions in the group; DR Congo snuck into second place in just 0.2% of the supercomputer’s simulations.

Uzbekistan are given a not-insignificant 30.8% chance of finishing third in Group K, but that won’t necessarily be enough to take them into the knockouts.

Group L

England failed to seal qualification to the round of 32 with their 0-0 draw against Ghana, but are still favourites to top Group L. The Opta supercomputer gives them an 81.7% chance of finishing first because they are huge favourites to beat Panama in their final group game and secure top spot.

As long as they win and Ghana don’t beat Croatia by two goals more than England win by, Thomas Tuchel’s side will finish top. Croatia have a 12.1% chance of coming first, and Ghana 6.2%.

The race for second is much more up in the air, as Croatia take on Ghana in what will likely end up a straight shootout.

A draw will be enough for the west African side, while a win for either team would secure at least second. If England slip up, though, the door will be opened to one of these teams overtaking them.

Ghana need to better England’s result or win by two more goals than them to leap into top spot. They have already guaranteed progression to the round of 32 regardless, though, while Croatia have all-but-secured their spot in the last 32, too.

Panama have already been eliminated.

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The post World Cup 2026 Permutations: What Every Team Needs From their Final Match of the Group Stage appeared first on Opta Analyst.

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